StandardKeynesian theory声称政府应该在经济衰退时刺激经济,在经济繁荣时冷却经济。许多人反对这种干涉主义,但白宫显然有一种新的干涉主义:在经济繁荣时期刺激经济。Would this imply slowing it down during a recession?

在凯恩斯理论中,刺激经济的一个方法是通过增加货币供应量来降低利率。John Maynard Keynes自己,然而,did not trust monetary policy and preferred increasing government expenditures and the budget deficit.Later Keynesians reclaimed monetary policy and the idea of pushing down interest rates during a slump.目前的政府显然想要更高的预算赤字(这是它以热情实现的)和更低的利率。It's the total Keynes,但在经济周期的错误阶段:他们希望在充分就业和经济繁荣的背景下刺激经济,这可以说是美国经济现在所处的位置。

在劳工部宣布上个月就业继续扩大后,他回应了他的老板,副总统彭斯昨天宣布彭斯对特朗普要求美国经济加速增长的呼吁加倍失望。”,美国有线电视新闻网,May 3,2019):

The economy is roaring.This is exactly the time not only to not raise interest rates,but we ought to consider cutting them.

Assuming there is some validity in Keynesian remedies,the question is,what will the Fed do when a recession hits and interest rates are already low?继续刺激更多的政府赤字和量化宽松?多长时间?Until the Fed owns the whole economy?这是马克思的报复。

Note that it is questionable that the Fed can manipulate interest rates,especially long-term rates,随意;on this,see Jeffrey Hummel,"中央银行对利率的控制:神话与现实“(Mercatus工作文件,2017)。一些认识和干预的谦逊是必需的。

白宫奇才们用“潜在产出”或“生产可能性边界”来证明他们的刺激欲望。has expanded under the adroit economic management of the current president and that,therefore,pushing up interest rates is no longer necessary to cool down the boom.In other words,they claim that the American economy isnot充分就业。TheWall Street Journalwrites ("White House Escalates Feud With Fed,“3月3日,2019):

白宫官员说,政府的减税和放松管制措施扩大了经济的潜在产出,meaning there is room to cut rates to boost growth,工资和就业不冒通货膨胀急剧上升的风险。

如果那是真的,prices should be falling.价格水平没有大幅度上涨(我们现在看到的是,that is,between 1.5% and 2%) is not the same as a decrease.可以说,美联储的政策仍然是扩张性的,几乎没有遏制通货紧缩。但这似乎是一个非常假设的说法。

In the CNN report,Pence says that Trump is "committed to the free market." Let's just say that it is not obvious.But if it is true and if it is also true that the PPF has shifted up,为什么政府不简单地提出一个自由市场的解决方案:美联储停止干预利率,而是让市场来决定利率?A period of expansion is the right time to start such a reform.

这项改革将符合这样的观察:金融未来总是笼罩在根本的不确定性之中,政府干预只能,正如通常所做的,增加经济波动,加剧经济危机。In his short bookFinance and Philosophy(Paul Dry Books,2018),Alex J.波洛克展示了美联储管理经济的能力有多危险。(我会在法律与自由.) But the power taken out of the Fed's hands should not be transferred to politicos or to other bureaucrats."Managing the economy"the problem.

There are many reasons to think that a laissez-faire solution is foreign or simply unknown to the sages in DC.很明显,政府想要进一步刺激的唯一原因是以未来的通货膨胀和金融崩溃为代价,暂时提振特朗普和共和党的经济和选举前景,就像理查德·尼克松在20世纪70年代初那样。

尼克提米罗斯的Wall Street Journal(“特朗普反复呼吁美联储刺激经济增长。," April 30,2019) reminded us of the evidence,网络上有多种形式:

Before he became president,先生。Trump repeatedly criticized such bond buying [quantitative easing by the Fed] as a dangerous experiment,他还警告说,低利率有使金融泡沫膨胀的风险。进入白宫后,然而,he has called on the Fed to stop raising rates and to resume its bond-buying program.